With final district level data having been released by the Census Bureau, it’s time to comb through the data and speculate about What It All Means for congressional redistricting. My observations:
- When it comes to partisan control of the redistricting process, there’s no good news for Democrats (see map).
- 107 House districts now have minority-majorities, including 18 currently represented by Republicans. These 18, along with an additional 30 GOP-held districts where non-Hispanic whites comprise less than 60% of the population will be key for Democrats in the future.
- Democratic-held black majority urban districts have lost a lot of population. The top five underpopulated districts are:
- Louisiana 2 - 493,352 residents, represented by Cedric Richmond (D). Hurricane Katrina explains the population loss.
- Michigan 13 - 519,570 residents, represented by Hansen Clark (D). District devastated by job losses in Detroit.
- Ohio 11 - 540,432 residents, represented by Marcia Fudge (D). Cleveland.
- Michigan 14 - 550,465 residents, represented by John Conyers (D). West Detroit.
- Iowa 5 - 577,453 residents, represented by Steve King (R). Rural population loss in western Iowa.
- Republican-held districts in the Southwest have gained population, much of it driven by an increase in Hispanic residents. The top 5 overpopulated districts are:
- Nevada 3 - 1,043,855 residents, represented by Joe Heck (R). Las Vegas suburbs.
- Texas 10 - 981,367 residents, represented by Michael McCaul (R). Northwest Houston.
- Utah 3 - 966,232 residents, represented by Jason Chaffetz (R). Southwestern part of state.
- Arizona 2 - 972,839, represented by Trent Franks (R). Glendale.
- Arizona 6 - 971,733, represented by Jeff Flake (R). East Phoenix suburbs.
For more information on the redistricting process and the shenanigans soon to descend on your state I recommend Americans for Redistricting Reform, the Rose Institute, the Brennan Center, and The Public Mapping Project.